MAARTEN VERHEYEN…
7 december, 2009 | door MHAAGEN |…van o.m. www.groeilanden.nl over de correctie van goud. Ik kan hem alleen maar gelijk geven – en U ? Wij vernemen uw reacties graag…
Goud corrigeert: wat nu?
Posted: December 7th, 2009 | Author: Maarten Verheyen | Filed under: economie, forex, goud | Tags: Ben Bernanke, carry trade, goud, jobcijfers, rente | De rally die goud toonde in de voorbije weken was niets minder dan indrukwekkend. De prijs ging de hoogte in tijdens 21 van de laatste 23 sessies en we zagen bijna dagelijks nieuwe highs.
Maar afgelopen vrijdag kwam er een brutaal einde aan deze hausse. Op twee dagen tijd ging het 6,5% naar beneden. Van $1224 naar $1145 vandaag.
Wat is er aan de hand?
Wel, het lange termijn potentieel zit meer dan goed. Goud is en blijft een degelijke belegging voor de komende jaren.
Op kortere termijn zit er mogelijk een haar in de boter. Schuldige is de carry trade. Geld lenen in dollar is nagenoeg gratis waardoor er een gigantische short-positie in de dollar is ontstaan. Niemand weet echt precies hoe groot deze carry trade is , maar het is duidelijk dat het tegendraaien van deze positie voor belangrijke verschuivingen kan zorgen.
De laatste jobcijfers toonden aan dat de economie in de VS sneller hersteld dan verwacht. Beleggers vrezen nu dat Bernanke relatief snel de rentetarieven zal optrekken.
Een hogere rente betekent dat de carry trade minder interessant wordt voor speculanten. Een aantal traders dekken zich nu reeds in en kopen dollars om hun posities af te bouwen. Om aan de nodige dollars te geraken, worden bepaalde activa (aandelen, obligaties, grondstoffen, …) van de hand gedaan.
Het is dus maar normaal dat goud het momenteel wat moeilijker krijgt en vrij fors corrigeert. Dit is mogelijk een trend die op zijn minst enkele weken of misschien wel maanden zal aanhouden. Zoals gezegd, weet niemand hoe groot de carry trade momenteel is.
Wie nog geen goud heeft, kan rustig deze correctie afwachten om in te stappen. Wie te zwaar in bepaalde goudmijnen zit en zit ongemakkelijk voelt over de grootte van bepaalde posities, bouwt beter wat af.
Wie echter mijn advies volgde en voor maximaal 10% met zijn vermogen in mijnaandelen zit, heeft niets te vrezen. Een forse correctie zou zelfs welkom zijn om hier en daar wat bij te kopen.
Tot daar het stuk van Maarten. Geen nood trouwens : Bernanke heeft vandaag nog eens benadrukt dat het herstel bijzonder fragiel is; m.a.w. : de rente op de dollar zal ongewijzigd laag blijven. Dus : goud kan weer omhoog !
5 Reacties op “MAARTEN VERHEYEN…”
Door gmuylaert op 8 december, 2009 | Reageer
De gouden raad van Maarten Verheyen, of de Gouden Raad van Tante Kaat ? Nou zeg, doe mij dan maar die leuke Tante !
Door Vincent Huygen op 17 december, 2009 | Reageer
Ik woon de laatste 21 jaar in South Carolina, USA en daarvoor 30 jaar in het verre Oosten.
gmuylaert schrijft over de gouden raad van Tante Kaat. Ik ben in Nederland geboren en getogen, maar ik heb geen idee wie Tante Kaat is.
Maarten Verheyen, ik lees geregeld jouw commentaar in jouw website en in beurs.com.Jouw visie is in lijn met specialists, die ik hier volg.
Eind November nam ik deel in een internationale webinar, georganiseerd door een financial research group. Ik copie/paste het hier beneden. Grote similariteit met wat ik op deze website lees.
Groetjes
Vincent Huygen
QUOTE:
Eleven startling forecasts for 2010 (November 19, 2009)
Summary written by Vincent Huygen
1) Forecast # 1
The Fed will not relent in its money printing MADNESS — until absolutely forced to do so.
Printing galore and not reducing money in circulation combined with keeping interest rates to close to 0%. 150 bank failures till November combined with rising unemployment. Officially 10.2 %, unofficially 17.5%
2) Forecast # 2
As a result of #1 Expect a continuing, virtually unstoppable LONG-TERM decline in the US Dollar.
Short Dollar rallies, which are traps. Messy and disorderly zig-zag declines in the US$ ending up with free fall and panic selling of the US$. Demands for replacement of US$ as reserve currency in 2010.
Sovereign wealth funds are getting out of the US$ and moving into other currencies.
Economists are underestimating their impacts and resulting asset relocations.
3) Forecast # 3.
RISK will be redefined by global investors as: “Holding US Dollars and most US$ Assets”.
They are very high risk because they are threatened by the declining PP of US$ (anything in greenbacks is painted RED=HIGH RISKS) as a result of monetizing the debt by the FED. (Deliberate policy). They are looking for replacements of $ as a store of wealth like gold, silver, copper, other commodities and tangible assets including real estate and paper representing these tangible assets like stocks. It is called monetization of assets. Instead of central banks selling gold they are now buying gold to get rid of the US$ papers (Money and treasuries)
4) Forecast # 4.
Gold will reach $1,500 per ounce (if not higher) as central banks massively buy bullion.
It is already underway from china (from 600tons to 1054 tons, 76% increase=454T) and India (200 tons at $6.7Billion from IMF) This reflects 8% of all the gold mined in the entire world each year,
5) Forecast # 5
Oil Producing nations will DEMAND that the US Dollar REPLACED as the pricing standard for crude oil.
This is the big issue from now on in Opec meeting. No longer the higher or lower price. Price will be inversely related to US$ and demands for replacement will grow louder and louder. Pricing range of oil on 2010 will be US$70-110. No new highs for oil because demand in US weak.
6) Forecast # 6
The US recovery of 2010 will go down in history as one of the weakest and shortest in 100 years.
27.4 million unemployed in USA. Highest ever and they will go up higher in 2010. Great fear to loose job and loose income. Also banks very tight in credit, continue to clamp down on credit and increasing fees, 9 quarters in a row, according to FED surveys. One in 5 homeowners have lost all equity in their home. Also rising energy cost: Gas and heating.
7) Forecast # 7
The economies of Brazil, China and India will grow up to 4 times faster than the US.
No unemployment, credit or inflation threat. Growth in US 1 or 2%, elsewhere, 4, 5, even 6 %.
Stocks in China, India and Brazil will grow up to FIVE TIMES FASTER than the DOW in US.
SandP 10% up in 2010, in other markets 20, 30, 40% even 50% higher than in USA. Other countries, Australia, Korea and Switzerland. (last one strong alternative to Euro).
Best of six is Brazil.
Watch carefully when to sell in week markets. Signal of downturn 10-year Treasury Notes and 30year Bonds.
9) Forecast # 9.
The first advanced signal that the party is coming to and end will come with an HISTORIC BOND MARKET COLLAPSE.
This collapse is causing inflationary expectations following monetary quantitative easing and growth. Fleeing to gold is for inflation fear. TIPS yields go up as inflation rises. Difference between TIPS and traditional bonds surged from 4 to 218 basis points. 54 times level one year ago. This shouts: Inflationary expectations are going up. 62% of all treasuries owned by foreigners, double than 2000. Massive issues, inflation and ownership by foreigners is a triple threat. Just a decline of foreign buying of bonds will upset scale. No more sale and dumping will cause collapse. This will raise yields of long term bonds greatly, which market controls. FED only controls short term rates up to one year. FED controls neither supply (budget deficit) and demand (bond buyers) of bonds. FED cannot prevent Bond Collapse, neither can it control bond prices and bond yields (interest rates). Examples June 1979 – February 1980 from 92 to 63, lost 30%; September 1993- November 1994 from 122 to 96, loss 21 % in a year yield from 5 to 8%, September 2008 to June 2009 dropped 30% in price, interest doubled from 2.5% to 4.8%. Accordingly mortgage and credit card interest go up. Long bond yields control other interest rates.
In housing prices still not found their bottom, still going down.
10) Forecast # 10
US housing prices will hit bottom in the second half of 2010. But the recovery in prices will be the weakest on record.
Why so weak. (1) Unemployment, (2) higher interest rates 6-8% following bond crash affects all adjustable mortgages – more foreclosures depressing prices
In Asia no real estate problems.
11) Forecast #11
Asia will enjoy a broader and more SUSTAINABLE real estate boom. NOT A BUBBLE like in 2000-2007 in USA
In Bangkok property up 30% in 6 months. Sovereign Wealth funds could invest 725 billion in commercial real estate by 2015, representing 7% of funds assets.
Investment Ideas for Asia:Real Estate Boom
1) iShares FTSE EPRA/NAREIT developed Asian Index Fund (IFAS)
2) Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (TAO)
Foreign Dividend Stocks. You benefit three ways
1) If foreign currency rises versus US$ yield goes up,
2) same for dividends increases
3) and share price increases
Benefit from dropping dollar by currency ETFs no examples.
Gold: Buy on pullbacks. If no gold buy half now and other half on pullbacks. Below $1000 bargain
Buy bullion, ETFs GLD and mining shares .like:
Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle, IAMGOLD, and Jaguar Mining
Southern Copper (PCU)Nilus
Oil up to $110 per barrel Nilus: Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) dividend yield of 7.6% and Energy Transfer Partners 8.1%(ETP) , MLP and Strategic Equity fund (MTP) 5.7%
Foreign Stock Markets rising 5 times US
1) Brazil iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)
2) MarketVectors Brazil Small Cap ETF ( BRF)
3) Claymore Alpha/Shares Smallcap (HAO)
Bond Market Collapse benefit: Proshares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT)
Door Vincent Huygen op 17 december, 2009 | Reageer
De onverwachte drop in de US$ bijna een week geleden had ook een aantal reacties in de financiele pers hier, en iedereen haalde de verbetering in de werkeloosheid van 10.2 naar 10% als de reden daarvoor. Niemand haalde de US$-carry trade aan. In feite je leest hier prakties nooit over de US$ carry trade. Naar aanleiding van Maarten Verheyen artiekel van 7 December “Goud corrigeert, Wat nu” schreef ik onder andere naar Dynamic Wealth Report als volgt
To: Dynamic Wealth Report
Subject: Re: Is The US Dollar Rally Real?
December 14, 2009
Hello Brian Mikes, Editor
Thank you for currency report. My name is Vincent Huygen. I grew up in Holland, followed by more than thirty years in the Far East, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia, culminating by the last 21 years in the USA.
I speak a number of European languages and follow the financial press in Europe closely. There is a Dutch financial website http://www.beurs.com which I read daily. Beurs is the dutch word for stock exchange. It is in Dutch with a computer generated translator in English, which sometimes gets led astray because of the difference in sentence construction between Dutch/German and English and the translated sentence makes not sense at all. Also Dutch proverbs are literally translated e.g “haar in de boter” is translated as “hair in the butter”, whereas the correct translation is “fly in the ointment” If I quote beurs.com articles I edit the computer generated translations. If you ever wish to quote them I will be happy to be your editor.
In Europe the Dubai debacle is regarded as relatively small, (US$85 billion) but possibly a harbinger of things to come and they list Greece, Spain, UK and USA and on the side some East European countries.
They regard the suddenly stronger US$ as a hiccup and they are convinced that the US$ will continue to go down, because of cost free money here by the FED, who cannot increase the interest rate until the real estate disaster stops and finds its bottom. With the tsunami of adjustable mortgages coming in the second quarter of 2010 and the commercial refinancing disaster hitting us in early 2010 the FED has already indicated that interest rates here will stay the same till end 2010. As you read on beurs.com the Eurpean participants in the carry trade fear that Bernanke may suddenly change his mind which would spell enormeous losses (encreased risk) for them.
Some Europeans blame the sudden unravelling or reversal of the US$ carry trade as the main reason for the unexpected strengthening of the US$, (more demand for the dollar to pay back the huge US$ loans used in the carry trade.) How huge is not known because they claim that nobody knows how huge the US$ carry trade is. It must be rather big since Brazil introduced an import tax on bringing in foreign funds (US$) for the purpose of earning a higher return after they are converted in their local currency.
The Europeans expect that the US$ will resume its decline when the reversal of US$ carry trade stops, but timing is difficult since nobody knows how large the carry trade is.
The articles state that Greece expected that the rest of the EA would bail them out but apparently that is not
happening and they demand that the Greeks adopt the same tough measures that Ireland recently implemented. In Ireland salaries of the public sector including all politicians including cabinet members and prime minister have been cut by 20%. That is what they should do in the USA. Just imagine.
Often the Europeans have quite a different view from the outside on USA happenings. The US$ is doomed, unemployment will continue to go up, because the private sectors is so deeply indebted. Consumers will continue their sudden desire to save and the 70% consumption by the private sector is no more and will take a decade to ever get back there. America cannot afford to stimulate further because the Chinese, Japanese and other uncles will not finance it anymore. Instead they want to reduce their US$ holdings Of course the FED can print more US$s but that will drive the US$ down even faster.
By the way I teach financial literacy in a prison environment and in the education world, and people really appreciate that I bring in an international point of view.
I am very keen to hear your comments and please tell me if you think the Europeans are wrong and why. You may also like to include the European view in your reports.
In beurs.com look for the article “Goud corrigeert – Wat nu?. Gold corrects – What now” of December 7 by Maarten Verheyen. The reversal of the carry trade is the main reason listed in this article. I was surprised that you did not mention this at all, hence my stimulus to write you.
Best wishes,
Vincent Huygen MAAcc.
Door MHAAGEN op 17 december, 2009 | Reageer
Bedankt Vincent om dit alles met ons te delen…!
Door Vincent Huygen op 4 februari, 2010 | Reageer
Hier is nog een mooie posting van Michel Malkin, de scherpe doorn in de huid van dems.
Big Government, Back with a Vengeance
Dear Fellow Conservative,
I bet you never thought you’d find yourself missing Bill Clinton.
Neither did I. But then I recalled President Clinton’s historic declaration, “The era of Big Government is over.”
It’s hard not to get nostalgic for a time when there really was bipartisan agreement in this country — an agreement that leaner, less intrusive government meant more prosperity for everyone.
Ah, the good ol’ days!
Today, Big Government isn’t just back — it’s back with a vengeance, like some crazed horror-film slasher who you thought was definitively dispatched at the end of the original movie, only to turn up even crazier in the sequel.
Indeed, it’s not even enough to call it Big Government any more — call it Berserk Government instead. And President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid are the wild-eyed maniacs driving this runaway train through one constitutional barrier after another, and straight off a fiscal cliff.
En jullie denken dat de US$ omhoog blijft gaan en de Euro omlaag? Wie zal het winnen. Wie heeft de beste kaarten. Gelijkspel misschien?
VAN Jullie Man uit Amerika.