EEN TIP VOOR 46 % WINST IN EEN JAAR…

3 juli, 2010 | door MHAAGEN |

Die komt van Dr Steve Sjuggerud, door velen zeer hoog geacht.  Het is een aandeel uit…de Amerikaanse bankensector, jawel, maar dan een heel bijzonder.  Het noteert aan boekwaarde en geeft een bijzonder veilig dividend van 16 % per jaar.  Sjuggerud heeft hierin gelijk, op voorwaarde dat de rente zo laag als nu blijft het komende jaar.  De doctor ziet daarbij nog eens een potentieel van 30 % = 46 %.  Dat dividend is wel bruto maar toch.  Ik heb mijn lezers deze mogelijkheid een maand of wat geleden al voorgelegd maar nu dus bij monde van Dr Sjuggerud ook aan u…  Vindt u dit interessant of niet ? Laat het maar weten…

The crazy thing is, now is the ideal environment for banking…

Banks can borrow money at ZERO percent, or very close to it. And banks can lend it out, risk-free in some cases, for 4% or more. This is the business of banking… Banks make their money on this interest rate “spread.” And the spread is as wide as it gets right now.

As an investor, what you want is a bank that can earn this spread, a bank that owns no bad deals.

The ideal “bank” for this situation is what I call a “government-guaranteed virtual bank.”

Annaly Capital (NLY) is the flag-bearer here. It’s like a bank. It earns an interest rate spread. But unlike a typical “bricks and mortar” bank, it doesn’t have any branches – so I call it a virtual bank.

And unlike a typical bank, Annaly doesn’t make loans to local businesses or on properties. Those have credit risk. Annaly has no credit risk. It invests 100% of its money in 100% government-guaranteed mortgage bonds. The government is stuck with the credit risk on everything it owns.

The numbers now are fantastic. Annaly currently pays a 16% dividend. I challenge you to find a dividend that high, that’s this safe, anywhere in the world.

It’s an ideal time to be a banker. The interest rate spread is ridiculously wide.

But most banks are doing ridiculous things… like turning down $1,000 deposits as “too risky.” (They should take deposits like that and invest them in guaranteed mortgage bonds, like Annaly does.)

Meanwhile, super-safe Annaly trades very cheap, right at book value (which is roughly liquidation value in this case). I expect shares of Annaly will trade up to a 30% premium above book value once people figure this story out. That’s a 30% gain in the stock, plus the 16% dividend… So you could see a 46% return here, in a year… safely.

“So what are you going to do?” I asked Lee, getting back to the story I started with.

“I don’t know,” he said. “I was hoping to build up some credit again. But for now I’ll just use PayPal or something. I’m not sure what to do.”

“Bricks and mortar” banks are apparently foolishly fearful right now. But virtual bank Annaly – with no credit risk – is not afraid. And right now, it is a great opportunity.

The safest, highest-return way to invest in the ideal banking environment is to buy shares of Annaly.

Good investing,

Steve