GOED NIEUWS EN SLECHT NIEUWS…

…vanwege Robert Prechter Jr. van Elliott Wave International.  Eerst maar het goede : er komt een kans, binnen vijf of zes jaar wel, om aandelen te kopen aan ongelofelijk lage, nu onvoorstelbare prijzen ! Dan het slechte : we zullen eerst door een bijzonder diep dal moeten, met reminiscensies aan de jaren 1800. 

Prechter zegt : “de winter komt eraan – koop een jas.  Andere adviseurs zeggen : blijft u maar rustig naakt rondlopen”.  Als Robert Prechter ongelijk krijgt, zal het u weinig deren.  Als die anderen ongelijk krijgen, bent u dood ! Zo gaat het in het Engels :

Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott who found repetitive patterns, or “fractals,” in the stock market of the 1930s and ’40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is under way, Mr. Prechter said. But he argued that even skeptical investors should take his advice seriously.

“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’ ” he said. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”

His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, “the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever,” he said.

Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people “from buying stocks for 100 years,” he said. This time, he said, “If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.’ ”

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said. That unraveling, combined with a depression and deflation, will make anyone holding cash “extremely grateful for their prudence.”

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