THE HINDENBURG OMEN WAARSCHUWT : CRASH ALARM !

(bron : Zerohedge.com)  “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration.” Het is geen perfécte indicator (welke is dat wel ?) maar als de vijf criteria ervan tezamen voorvallen en binnen de 36 dagen bevestigd worden…dan is het voor 77% zeker dat een crash plaatsvindt in de volgende 40 dagen.  Eergisteren, 12 augustus jl. was zo’n dag.   Nu is het wachten of er al dan niet bevestiging komt…

As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:

1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

Today, august 12, all five conditions were satisfied. June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, en we weten allemaal nog wat er daarna volgde…

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