MATTERHORN ASSET MANAGEMENT…

…schrijft dat we geen double dip zullen kennen maar…iets veel ergers.  De VS zullen echter niet in een Japan-scenario terechtkomen, maar hyperinflatie kennen, na een korte periode van deflatie.  Wat zijn de verschillen tussen Japan in 1990 en de VS anno 2010 :

Many “experts” make the analogy between the deflationary period in Japan since the 1990s and the US today. In our view the US is in a totally different situation for the following reasons:

• In the early 1990s Japan could still export their production to the rest of the world.
• In the current downturn all countries (even China and India) will suffer and there will be no one to export the problems to.
• The ability to export made Japan a creditor nation with major payment surpluses.  US are a major debtor and have been for 25 years.
• Japan had a very high personal savings ratio at the time (which has now disappeared). US has had a declining savings rate for years (the US savings rate is now going up which it always does in a downturn).
• The balance of payments and the personal savings surpluses made it possible for Japan to finance their budget deficit without resorting to QE. Very soon he US will only be able to finance their deficits with QE and so will most of the rest of the Western world.
• Japanese unemployment in 1992 was 2% and went slowly up to 5% by 2000 where it is now. Real US unemployment is 22% and increasing.
• Many major sovereign states are now virtually bankrupt and the financial system is on life support. This was not the case in the 1990s.

The above are some of the reasons why the current US situation is totally different to Japan. QE will accelerate in the US and worldwide.  Alle belangrijke landen maar de VS op de eerste plaats zullen geld blijven bijdrukken en hun munt waardeloos zien worden.  De USD zal zijn status van wereldreservemunt verliezen…  Ik ben benieuwd naar uw reacties…

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